I hope that I'm not out of place with this query but I was intriqued by the range of estimates for the number of July hits. We've just come off a month where the hits/day was nearly 66. Even with no increase in rate, with an extra day in July that would put us well over 2000. Why is everyone's estimate so low?! Is my prediction THAT out of whack? I thought I was being cautious and here I am way out in front of everyone. The rate of hits per day has increased every month for the past 10 – and increasingly so in the past 6. Without revealing your secrets, may I ask what people base their estimates on? Just trying to get smarter here! :)
I've only been a member for 2 days; this is my first message. But that won't stop me from having an opinion!!!
My guess why the estimates are low is that it is summer and some people will not take, or have the time to enter a bill they have found. I mean this for those who are non-members (poor saps!!). As for those of us that just can't get over how fascinating this Site is, I'm sure we will continue to enter every bill that crosses our palms!!!
The math worked once for me but it's more a gut thing now. I hope your right though!!
The bottom line is you can use whatever method you prefer but at the rate of growth the site is having it's a shot in the dark and if you are lucky you will be the closest….
A shot in the dark and blind luck….works for me!!!!!!
Nothing fancy or scientific here, just a number I picked and I'm sticking with it every month until I decide to change. In other words: a shot in the dark and some blind luck.
geez, "science" sure seems to have a lousy reputation here! :) i guess i wasn't clear in my question. the estimates are based on something – otherwise they would vary much more widely (likely ranging from guesses of 5 to 1,576,287… those would be truly random). what IS it about the numbers, growth, or pattern that makes you pick the numbers that you do?
Trends, intuition, intestinal gas? Combination of factors. You can look at the numbers and factor in past growth and do it statistically. But do you allow yourself leeway for unexpected events? 24 months ago who could have predicted that Saskatoon of all places would be the 'cult-capital'? We just happened to attract the right people and took off. The 9/11 event seemed to actually increase our rate. The Edmonton area seems to be on the verge of the same thing after all the work by Jake and 21. Vancouver could explode at anytime with all the Saucy and Kitkat bills there. And we're counting on Golden Boy to kickstart Winnipeg (samson? show your location, I think you're Winnipeg as well.)
Bottom line… The numbers are not pulled out of a hat. But what constitutes a 'mathematical estimate' is highly subjective with this crew! :-D
For anyone interested, as of 12:01 am Mountain time on July 6, 2003, we are only on pace for 1,772 hits this month thus far.
geez, gene, as of that time i figured there had been 343 hits in 5 days which means 343/5*31days=2126.6 total. i'm curious where the discrepency is…
(note that 12:01 am Mountain time on July 6 is only 120 hours or 5 days into July…. give or take a minute…)
I'm with St. Rudy on this one! Sorry Meany.
Youre right rudyk and Pooga, I used 6 where I should have used 5. At least someone's using their brains here ;) lol
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