Isn't the odds of winning 6/49 1 in 10,068,347,520? Just bugging Lord_Comedy.
"Date: 2004-08-02
Author: Lord_Comedy
Subject: re: Serial number coincidence
Rest assured Poogie.
Math is my strong subject.
this isn't like flipping a quarter..
where each time you flip a coin you get 50% chance of heads or tails
this is more like 6/49 10 billion - 1 odds
but if for 1 draw you buy 9 billion tickets.. none that match you have a 90 % chance of winning "
10 billion - 1 is pretty close for the odds you gave..
the exact proability is
(49!)
——
(43!)(6!)
or
49 * 48 * 47 * 46 * 45 * 44
—————————
6 * 5 * 4 * 3 * 2 * 1
which is 13,983,816 to 1 Odds
I was just doing an example so I didn't use exact numbers.
Super 7 is 85,900,584 to 1 odds.
Guess that explains why it is won so much less than 6/49
Just reading what you wrote there would indicate to me that the odds are about 13 million to 1 not 10 billion to 1, correct Lord_Comedy? I just calculated all permutations in the 10,068,347,520 number. That must be all the possible different orders of numbers being drawn also. When divided by the 720 takes out all the duplicate numbers in a different order right? Now I am confused.
6 49 the numbers are drawn then sorted.. as they are on the ticket
if you needed to draw the numbers in the right order then it would be 10 billion
but since there is order to the numbers drawn then it comes down to 13 million.
I don't know if you went to university or not, but I remember my old text has the formula in it for 6/49
6 / 49 is not a permutation it is a combination
a permutation being (a)! / (a-b)!
combination being (a)! / (a-b)! (b)!
A permutation is more like a combination to a lock .. say 6 numbers numbered 1 - 49
these numbers you have to enter in the right order
so the probability is substanily less to get in the right order.
10 billion - 1
but in 6 / 49 you pick any 6 numbers
out of 49
23 , 15, 9 , 19, 22, 40
is the same as 9 , 15, 19 , 22, 23, 40
with order being irrelevent you have an easier task
going back to the example of the lock..
if you can have the same number multiple times
so it is actually (49 ^ 6) / (1^6 )
or 49 ^ 6 even higher than the 10 billion to 1
roughly 13.8 billion - 1
Just did a quick search but there are combinations & permutation in this web page.
http://www.wcrl.ars.usda.gov/cec/java/probjav.htm
This link from that page may help you just as much. Explain combinations.
http://www.wcrl.ars.usda.gov/cec/java/comb.htm
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